THE global economic recovery will benefit from a faster and more effective COVID-19 vaccine rollout across the world, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) latest Interim Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.
The world economy is set to rebound at 5.6 per cent this year and expand 4 per cent next year, said the organisation. This marks a sharp increase of more than 1 percentage point since its projection in December, 2020, when the Paris-based forum forecast global growth of 4.2 per cent this year and 3.7 per cent in 2022.
World output is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 but the pace and duration of the recovery will depend on the race between vaccines and emerging variants of the virus, it cautioned.
"Speed is of the essence," said OECD Secretary-General Mr Angel Gurria. "There is no room for complacency. Vaccines must be deployed faster and globally. It is only by doing so that we can focus our attention on building forward better and laying the foundations for a prosperous and lasting recovery for all."
But the pandemic is widening gaps in economic performance between countries and between sectors, as some nations risk long-term damage to the job market and social welfare by the slow rollout.
"Widespread vaccination of the adult population is the best economic policy available today to get our economies and employment growing again ," she said.
"If we don't get enough people vaccinated quickly enough to allow restrictions to be lifted, the recovery will be slower and we will undermine the benefits of fiscal stimulus ," she added.
While the vaccine rollout would give a shot in the arm to the global economy, the US' planned USD 1.9 trillion stimulus package, contributed to an upward revision of more than 3 percentage points in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In the OECD's central scenario, US growth is projected to be 6.5 per cent in 2021 and 4 per cent in 2022, ramped up from its previous prediction of 3.2 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent in the next year.
With public money flooding into the economy, this will also help to lift output around the world.
In the Euro area, where the level of fiscal stimulus is lower and vaccine rollout slower, the Interim Economic Outlook sees GDP rising 3.9 per cent, a 0.3 percentage point upward revision.
Prospects are brighter in the Asian-Pacific region where several countries have effectively contained the virus and where industrial activity has regained dynamism. In China, GDP growth is projected to be 7.8 per cent this year, in Japan 2.7 per cent, in Korea 3.3 per cent and in Australia 4.5 per cent.
The recovery is likely to be more moderate in the emerging market economies of Latin America and Africa amid a resurgence of the virus, slow vaccine deployment and limited scope for additional policy support. |