THE developing economies of East Asia and the Pacific are facing a three-speed recovery, with China and Vietnam beating their pre-pandemic levels of economic growth while others could take years more to rebound, said the World Bank's latest economic update.

The region is seeing a markedly uneven recovery as economic performance has depended on the effectiveness of virus containment, the ability to take advantage of the revival of international trade, and the capacity of governments to provide fiscal and monetary support.

Growth in the region is expected to accelerate from an estimated 1.2 percent in 2020 to 7.5 percent in 2021 – but the recovery is likely to be three-speed.

Only China and Vietnam are experiencing a ‘v'-shaped rebound where output has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. China and Vietnam are expected to grow even more strongly in 2021, by 8.1 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, up from 2.3 percent and 2.9 percent in 2020.

Other large economies, more scarred by the crisis, will grow about 4.6 percent on average, slightly slower than pre-crisis growth. Output has remained on average around 5 percent below pre-pandemic levels, with the smallest gap in Indonesia at 2.2 per cent and the largest gap in the Philippines at 8.4 per cent.

Hardest hit of all have been the Pacific Island countries where recovery is expected to be particularly protracted in tourism-dependent nations. They are set to grow just 1 per cent after contracting 11.3 per cent last year.

The economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has stalled poverty reduction for the first time in decades. An estimated 32 million people in the region failed to escape poverty (at a poverty line of USD 5.50 per day) due to the pandemic, said the World Bank.

Inequality increased, driven by the pandemic and resulting shutdowns, as well as unequal access to social services and digital technologies. In some countries, children in the poorest two-fifths of households were 20 percent less likely to be engaged in learning than children of the top one-fifth. Women are suffering more violence than previously: 25 percent of respondents in Lao PDR and 83 percent in Indonesia said that domestic violence worsened due to COVID-19.

The report estimates that the recently passed USD 1.9 trillion stimulus package passed by the US will spillover and add 1 percentage point on average to the growth of countries, mainly through trade and investment in the region. This could advance recovery by about three months on average.

Risks to the outlook come from slow implementation of COVID-19 vaccines, which could slow growth by as much as 1 percentage point in some countries.The World Bank report calls for international cooperation in the production and approval of vaccines as well as in allocation based on need, to help contain COVID-19.