AFTER the worst recession since World War II, recovery is underway but it remains dependant on faster progress in ending the COVID-19 crisis as that would add almost USD 9 trillion to the global economy by 2025, said the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Managing Director Ms Kristalina Georgieva on Wednesday.
"We have good news that there is light at the end of the tunnel," she said at a virtual conference during the IMF and World Bank's annual Spring Meetings.
The IMF lifted their global growth forecast to 6 percent for 2021-22, and to 4.4 percent for 2022 backen on unprecedented policy response and speedy vaccination campaigns.
"The outlook is brighter because millions of people are benefitting from vaccinations and because of further policy support, especially in the United States. This is adding to the exceptional and coordinated actions taken over the past year," she said.
However, Ms Georgieva warned of the "dark shadow" cast by the crisis as the larger economies, led by the US and China, are powering ahead while weaker and poorer nations are falling behind.
"Economic fortunes are diverging dangerously," she said, sharing the uncertainty over the impact of new virus strains, and further economic scarring from job losses, learning losses, bankruptcies, extreme poverty and hunger.
Presenting the IMF's Global Policy Agenda, she urged governments' to give a "fair shot" at the COVID-19 vaccines, economic recovery and a stable future.
"Vaccine policy is economic policy," she stressed.This would mean ramping up vaccine production and distribution and steering clear of export controls.
Faster progress in ending the health crisis could add almost USD 9 trillion to global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2025, she said, calling the vaccine the "best value for public money in our times."
She also called for targeted fiscal measures and maintaining favourable financial conditions to support vulnerable households and viable firms so long as the crisis is in progress.
Given diverging recoveries, countries need careful communication by major central banks, and prudent policies as the IMF chief advised to gradually scale back support programmes and scale-up targeted hiring subsidies and retraining and reskilling of low - skilled workers, youth and women.
Boosting investment in green projects and digital infrastructure, both in health and education, will lead to a "historic transformation" to greener, smarter, more inclusive economies, Ms Georgieva said.
To do so, they will require sufficient public revenues and efficient spending, she added. This may lead to more progressive taxation and an agreement on questions like minimum taxation for companies and international tax rights.
IMF research shows low - income countries have to deploy some USD 450 billion over the next five years to deal with the multi-pronged crisis. The further extension of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) announced by the G 2 0 and the Common Framework for orderly debt restructuring will help them.
"We continue to step up in an unprecedented way," said the fund's chief, as she proposed a new Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation of USD 650 billion to address the long - term global need for reserve assets and provide substantial liquidity boost to vulnerable members.
"What this crisis has shown us is just how inescapable our shared destiny is. Now we must build on this broader sense of common responsibility to foster a fair recovery and a resilient post - pandemic world," she added. |