THE Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for August 2011, continue to point to
a slowdown in economic activity in most OECD countries and major non-member
economies. The CLI for the OECD area fell 0.5 point in August, the fifth
consecutive monthly decline.
The CLIs for the United States, Germany and
Russia point more strongly to a slowdown than in last month’s assessment, but
are still above 100, indicating that economic activity remains above its
long-term trend. For all other major economies, except Japan, the CLIs are now
below 100 pointing strongly to a slowdown in economic activity below long term
trend.
The CLI for Japan continues to indicate a potential turning-point
in economic activity, but there are no strong signs of a slowdown. The OECD
Development Centre's Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) show signs of
moderation in ASEAN economies.
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