A surge in shipments of electronics, automotive and textiles to meet pent-up consumer demand fuelled a slight uptick in global trade in the third quarter of this year, said the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Friday, as it cautioned that trade still lagged far behind pre-pandemic levels.
WTO estimates showed that trade in manufactured goods was down 5% year-on-year in the quarter from July to September, much closer to pre-pandemic trade levels than the second quarter's 19% shortfall. The global trade body attributed the recovery to increased production and a relaxation of the lockdown.
Computers and electronic components saw double-digit trade growth, as did shipments of textiles, which were boosted by demand for face masks.
“These figures are broadly consistent with the WTO's most recent trade forecast… which projected a 9.2% decline in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2020,” the organisation said.
Trade in automotive products, representing 11% of manufactured goods trade worldwide, accelerated in the third quarter as manufacturers ramped up production to meet pent-up consumer demand. Clothing trade also showed signs of resilience in the third quarter, with shipments down just 4% year-on-year in September as imports picked up in North America and Europe.
After growing at an average rate of 10% in the first half of the year, trade in pharmaceutical products contracted by 1% in the third quarter.
“This appears to indicate an end to stockpiling, particularly in Europe, where COVID-19 cases dropped significantly over the summer,” WTO said.
Unsurprisingly, trade in personal protective equipment (PPE) continued to grow rapidly, rising by 63% in the third quarter compared to the year before, with trade in face masks, largely fabric masks, up 102%.
However, WTO data shows that overall services trade remained depressed, down 17% from last year during the month of September after registering a 23% downturn in July and 22% in August.
“Although the fall in services trade appears to have bottomed out as travel restrictions on intra-European travel were lifted over the summer, most economies continued to record sharp declines,” the trade body noted, with the U.S. and China posting significant declines.
It added, the resurgence of COVID-19 in the autumn has put recovery on hold. By contrast, the availability of a vaccine and its manufacturing, transport and distribution will contribute to the recovery of services trade in 2021, both directly and by facilitating travel. |