ACCORDING to a recent OECD report the Composite leading indicators (CLIs),
designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend,
point to a positive change in momentum for the OECD as a whole, driven primarily
by the United States and Japan, but similar signs are beginning to emerge in a
number of other developed economies. The CLIs for India and Russia also show
signs of an upward change in growth momentum.The CLIs for all other major OECD
economies, the Euro area and Brazil continue to point to below trend growth. But
tentative signs are emerging that the recent deterioration in CLIs is
moderating, and the CLIs for seven of the fifteen countries in the Euro area are
now pointing towards a positive change in momentum. However, the CLI for China
points more strongly to a slowdown this month than in last month's assessment.
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