EVEN as the global economy continues to be gloomy, Asia
continues to provide the islands of hope for economic recovery. As per the
latest findings of the ADB supllementary Report, the developing Asia will post
growth of 6.0% in 2012 and 6.6% in 2013, 0.1% percentage point lower than
anticipated by ADB in October. Robust private consumption in Southeast Asia and
a mild economic recovery in People's Republic of China (PRC) nearly balance out
the weaknesses in India's economy. The report warns that ongoing sluggishness
and uncertainty in Europe and the United States mean that risks to the forecasts
remain firmly on the downside.
India's economy
remains sluggish, with sliding industrial production and declining exports.
Pacific economies, led by resource-rich Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and
Timor-Leste, are continuing to benefit from infrastructure rollouts which should
support growth of 6% in 2012, but the expansion will moderate in 2013, the
report says.
Key Points:
• Growth forecast
for the region revised down by 0.1 percentage point to 6.0% in 2012 and to 6.6%
in 2013
• 2012 growth
forecasts in the ASEAN 5 revised up from 5.6% to 5.9%, boosted by a strong third
quarter in Malaysia and the Philippines.Growth in East Asia is slightly revised
down from 6.5% to 6.4% in 2012 and from 7.1% to 7.0% in 2013
• India's growth
forecast is revised from 5.6% to 5.4% in fiscal year (FY) 2012 and from 6.7% to
6.5% in FY 2013
• Commodity price
pressures have been relatively benign and Developing Asia's inflation is
expected to hover around 4%.
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