IMF Chief Christine Lagarde at the Forum for Asia Annual
Conference discussed about the current Global Economic Perspective. The central
theme for this year's Forum captures the spirit of the moment: Asia Seeking
Development for All .
She
said that the IMF is their partner in this endeavor. Just as China is changing
to fulfill its dream, we are changing too so that we can be even more effective
in our support. A lot has to be given to our global experience and technical
expertise. But we also have a lot to learn from Asia's remarkable success story.
She began with the current global economic perspective, but with an Asian biased
angle stating that it's beyond the imagination where the world economy might be
today without Asia. This region has been the consistent global growth leader
driving an astonishing 2/3 of total growth in the five years since the crisis
hit. Asia now sits squarely at the cross-roads of global trade. This is good
news. But it can also expose Asia to changing fortunes in other parts of the
world. At no time was this clearer than when growth tumbled by more than
10 percent in a number of Asian economies in the few months following the Lehman
collapse.
The
question now is whether global prospects are tilted to the upside or the
downside. The IMF will be releasing its updated global forecasts next week. A
substantial portion of the global economy looks better today than it did last
year. Growth continues to strengthen and broaden among the emerging and
developing economies. And we are beginning to see momentum pick up in the United
States which is good news. But at the same time, we must not lull ourselves into
a false sense of security that all risks have passed. However, there are several
risks associated with this discussed below:
Patchy recovery: Low and lopsided growth is not enough.
It is not enough of a real recovery; it is not enough of a
global recovery. Worries about low growth naturally center on Europe.
The continuing recession there reflects the very difficult conditions that
persist in the smaller periphery countries as well as some weakness in the core
of the Euro zone. While there has been progress on a number of fronts, policy
solutions will take time to be completed and effective including tough
adjustments in some individual countries. At the area wide level, the main issue
is to push ahead with banking union.
Fiscal Exposure: Fiscal risks in some major advanced
economies are also weighing on the recovery. In the United States, for example,
the spending cuts known as the Sequester will take some shine off growth this
year. And failure to raise the debt ceiling could derail the recovery. The
bigger issue is uncertainty about the future of fiscal policy. The fiscal cliff
has been avoided but a credible medium-term roadmap to bring down debt remains a
key challenge to be addressed if U.S. growth is to be placed on a much more
sustainable path.
Monetary Exposure: Monetary policies including
unconventional measures have helped prop up the advanced economies, and in turn,
global growth. The reforms just announced by the Bank of Japan are another
welcome step in this direction. There is, however, a limit to how effectively
monetary policy can continue to shoulder the lion's share of this effort. There
could also be unintended consequences including from exit that policymakers need
to plan and watch for. This also comes back to the fiscal uncertainties that are
weighing on growth, as well as the need to push ahead with comprehensive
structural reforms that can help kick start growth.
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