The global ratings
agency Moody's outlined that India's December quarter was likely the bottom of
the economic cycle, and anticipated a steady acceleration in GDP growth in the
in 2013 forecasting GDP to 6.2% from 5.1% as all the major headwinds were likely
to turn into mild positives and risks around the economy, particularly the
fiscal and current account deficits,have begun to recede and the gains
in financial markets has started reflecting the rising expectations around the
economy as well as lower risk.
Moody's expects India's
headline inflation to drop to 6 per cent by year's end, paving the way for an
expected rate cut around mid-2013.Bessides the Budget 2013-14 delivered the
easiest and smallest cuts in the deficit, enough to free up funds to help the
government's 2014 electoral chances without fanning fiscal risk. Though the
budget does nothing to fortify India's long-term growth but it suggest that
government consumption, which slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, will
accelerate in 2013, lifting GDP growth.
Moody's forecast economic
growth of around 7% from 2014, which is India's new rate of trend growth while
rejects double digit growth view and said that this is wildly optimistic and,
without significant structural reform.
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