COMPOSITE leading
indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity
relative to trend, signal improvements in growth in most major OECD countries
and also possibly in China.
The
CLIs point to economic growth above trend in Japan, and
to growth firming in the United Kingdom. The CLI for Canada indicates
a positive change in momentum. In the United States, the
CLI points to growth around trend.
In
the Euro Area as a whole, the CLI continues to indicate
a gain in growth momentum. In Germany, the CLI points to
growth firming, whereasthe CLI for Italy and for France continue
to signal positive changes in momentum.
In
the emerging economies, the CLIs point to a tentative positive change in
momentumin China ,and to growth around trend in Russia.
In Brazil and in India, the CLIs continue
to signal growth below trend rates.
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