According to International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) latest country report on Australia issued on 12th February, “the government has announced the broad aim of returning the budget to a sustained surplus, building to a 1 percent of GDP surplus by 2023/24. A more detailed framework will be established when the government announces its fiscal strategy in May. The government has also pledged to scrap the carbon tax and the mineral resource rent tax which will reduce revenue by about ¼ percentage point of GDP compared to total budget revenues from the mining sector of around 2 percent of GDP.”

IMF's staff report on Australia prepared for 2013 Article IV Consultation says: “If tax revenue is held at its average level over the last decade, the resulting budget deficit in 2023/24 would reach 2 percent of GDP. Reaching the government's budget surplus target would thus require cutting spending by around 3 percent of GDP, either by reducing net non-social spending or by putting in place policy measures to contain increases in social spending.”

It notes that Australia's fiscal position compares well to its advanced economy peers, although debt has increased in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The government considers it a priority to return the budget to surplus to preserve its favorable standing with external creditors against the background of relatively high overall net foreign debt.

An IMF release issued at the conclusion of the consultation with Australian authorities notes: “a transition phase has now been reached as the terms of trade driven mining investment boom of the past decade has peaked and the economy is moving to the production and export phase. Mining-related investment which accounted for almost half of GDP growth in the past couple of years is expected to drop sharply in the near term, and a recovery in non-mining investment will be needed to underpin demand and return the economy's growth rate to trend.”