BRAZIL is emerging from its long recession and is headed for solid growth in 2018 and 2019 as recent structural reforms start to bear fruit. Sustaining this recovery, unleashing Brazil’s full economic potential and spreading the benefits fairly will require additional efforts to rein in public spending, increase trade and investment, and further focus social spending on those most in need, according to a new OECD report.

The latest OECD Economic Survey of Brazil says that deepening reforms to strengthen institutions, improve business regulation and reap the benefits of tighter integration into the global economy could lift GDP by at least 20% over 15 years, which would boost household incomes and help compensate for the economic drag of a rapidly ageing population. Better targeting of welfare spending on the poorest households would be crucial for fostering inclusive growth.

The Survey says Brazil is foregoing the benefits of integration into the world economy due to a trade policy that has prioritised safeguarding domestic markets over facilitating access to foreign markets. Brazil has especially high tariffs on intermediate and capital goods, and non-tariff trade barriers such as local content rules and anti-dumping measures are widespread.

Lowering trade barriers would make Brazilian firms more competitive by allowing them to source inputs at lower prices. This would boost trade volumes and raise productivity and wages. It would also reduce prices for consumers, in particular low-income households.

Investment, already low compared to other Latin American and emerging economies, has declined in both real terms and as a share of GDP in recent years, weighing on the overall economy and adding to existing infrastructure bottlenecks. Reversing this trend will require concrete actions to improve infrastructure planning, open up new sources of finance, reduce administrative burdens, simplify taxes, and streamline licencing. Continuing to fight corruption with reforms to increase accountability would also help to draw investment and restore citizens’ trust in institutions.