THE value of world merchandise trade is up by 22% in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the same period of 2010, according to WTO figures released yesterday.

These short-term “value” figures should not be confused with the annual trade growth figures headlined in the 7 April 2011 press release, which are “volume” data using “constant dollars” with inflation taken into account, states the WTO Press Release.

Moreover, WTO short-term merchandise trade values are not seasonally adjusted. Seasonal patterns therefore considerably affect the quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q) and month on month (M-o-M) developments in world trade, and this in turn affects comparisons between the trade developments in individual regions and economies.

Available monthly statistics for about 70 economies representing more than 90% of world trade show that merchandise trade rose sharply in March 2011, reflecting in good part seasonal variations. The value of trade reached for the first time a level superior to the pre-crisis maximum of July 2008.