AS per the OECD's latest Economic Outlook, the global recovery is
firmly underway, but is taking place at different speeds across countries and
regions.
World
gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 4.2% this year and by
4.6% in 2012. Across OECD countries GDP is projected to rise by 2.3% this year
and by 2.8% in 2012, in line with the previous forecasts of November
2010.
In
the USA, activity is projected to rise by 2.6% this year and by a further 3.1%
in 2012. Euro area growth is forecast at 2% this year and next, while in Japan,
GDP is expected to contract by 0.9% in 2011 and expand by 2.2% in
2012.
The
recovery is becoming self-sustained, with trade and investment gradually
replacing fiscal and monetary stimulus as the prinicipal drivers of economic
growth. Confidence is increasing, which could add further buoyancy to private
sector activity, the OECD said.
But
there are downside risks, including the possibility of further increases in oil
and commodity prices, which could feed into core inflation; a
stronger-than-projected slowdown in China; the unsettled fiscal situation in the
United States and Japan; and renewed weakness in housing markets in many OECD
countries. Financial vulnerabilities remain in the euro area, in spite of strong
adjustment efforts underway in some countries.
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