AS per the latest Asian Business Cycle Indicators, ASEAN economies show
resilience in growth in the second quarter of 2011.
However, the general trend masks
diverse country performances. For instance, Malaysia and Thailand show upward
movement in business cycles. Activity is picking up in Malaysia on the back of
sound export performance (in particular electronics) and robust private
consumption. Thailand, though had experienced a temporary impact of the Great
Touhoku Earthquake in Japan, is recovering led by strong
investment.
Indonesia and Singapore maintained their growth momentum
though not as robustly as in Malaysia and Thailand. Sound private consumption
and investment, as well as stable business sentiment support growth despite
weaker government spending in Indonesia. Continuing capital inflows and their
volatility still constitute a challenge for policymakers. In Singapore, strong
manufacturing output has contributed to the positive outlook.
Some signs
of slowing appeared in China and India. Weaker consumption and sluggish exports
to OECD countries will be the reason in China. Weak domestic sales (in
particular cars) and the adverse impact of commodity price hikes explain the
weaker prospect in India.
|
