ACCORDING to a new OECD Study, disruptive shocks to the global economy are likely to become more frequent and cause greater economic and societal hardship. The economic spill-over effect of events like the financial crisis or a potential pandemic will grow due to the increasing interconnectivity of the global economy and speed with which people, goods and data travel.

“Future Global Shocks” analyses five potential major risks in the years ahead: a pandemic, a cyber attack disrupting critical infrastructure, a financial crisis, socio-economic unrest and a geomagnetic storm.

The growing threat of a pandemic was highlighted by the SARS outbreak in 2002, which spread quickly from Hong Kong around the world as travellers caught the virus and then flew home. The increasing number of heavily populated megacities, notably in Asia, exacerbates the risk, particularly in business travel, tourism and migration hubs like Dhaka, Manila and New Delhi.

New antibiotics are desperately needed to keep pace with the rising development of bacteria that are drug-resistant, according to the report. Tax incentives and fast-tracking patents may encourage firms to invest, given the very high costs of antibiotic drug development.