COMPOSITE leading indicators (CLIs) for July continue to strengthen from the Covid-19 crisis lows across all major economies, but they remain below long-term trends and at levels lower than those recorded prior to the initial Covid-19 outbreak.

Following their strong increase in June, the pace of improvement in CLIs inevitably slowed in most major economies. In China, early signs that appeared in June of the CLI returning to levels seen just prior to the crisis have been reversed.

With uncertainty persisting around the possibility of future mitigation measures, the CLIs should be interpreted with care. As always, the magnitude of CLI should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in the economic activity.